Defense

From Just-in-Time to Just-in-Case: Why Europe Needs a New Defence Supply Chain Model

For years, Europe’s defence industry operated on a Just-in-Time (JIT) supply chain model — one that focused on efficiency, cost reduction, and minimizing inventory. This approach made sense during times of peace, especially after the Cold War, when stability allowed for lean production systems and carefully timed deliveries. But today, the landscape has changed drastically. 

In the wake of two years of high-intensity conflict, Europe’s existing defence stockpiles are simply not enough. The JIT model, while great for trimming costs, has proven inadequate in responding to the fast-paced demands of modern warfare. The continent now finds itself needing to pivot and fast. A shift towards a Just-in-Case (JIC) model is no longer optional, it’s essential. 

So, what’s the real issue with JIT in this context? At its core, the model is built around the idea of “only what’s needed, when it’s needed.” While this works well in predictable, low-risk environments, it falls short when emergencies strike. In high-risk situations, like land-based warfare, where rapid deployment and flexibility are crucial, the lack of reserve stock becomes a major vulnerability. For example, one Tier 1 supplier reported that the delivery of essential components could take between 60 and 80 weeks, an unacceptable delay in times of crisis. 

JIC, on the other hand, flips the script. Instead of relying on streamlined inventory, it prioritizes strategic stockpiling of critical materials, equipment, and components. This way, armed forces can immediately access what they need, without waiting for production lines to catch up. It’s a model that prepares for uncertainty, one that ensures Europe is not caught off guard. 

The benefits of this transition go beyond just logistics. A JIC model would also play a crucial role in reinforcing European sovereignty and peace by enabling a quicker, more resilient response to emerging security threats. It’s not only about having more, but also about being ready. 

But moving to JIC isn’t just about building bigger warehouses. It requires a complete rethink of Europe’s defence production capacity. Industrial ramp-up is key. That means investing in the entire value chain, especially the often-overlooked small and mid-sized companies that are the backbone of Europe’s defence ecosystem. These businesses need support and coordination to ensure that, together, they can meet the rising demand for weapons, ammunition, and other critical supplies. 

In short, Europe’s future readiness depends on its ability to leave behind a model designed for peacetime and embrace one that meets the demands of a more uncertain, contested geopolitical environment. A JIC approach built on preparation, resilience, and speed is the best way forward.