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The Steep but Unavoidable Path to European Defense

Filling the Lending Gap for SMEs

In recent years, major defense companies, national armies, and the European Union (EU) have expressed growing concern about the significant and persistent lending gap affecting small and mid-cap companies. These companies are vital to the supply chains that enable the defense industry to produce more and faster. Mid-cap defense subcontractors face substantial funding needs early in the contract lifecycle, which often involves high development costs and little compensating revenue. The ‘J-shaped’ net cash flow of suppliers across the contract lifecycle illustrates this critical need for early funding. As the European defense landscape evolves, even greater financing will be necessary to help these companies ramp up production, meet high order backlogs, and build buffer inventories.

The Need for Increased Investment

The European Commission estimates that an additional €500 billion will need to be invested in European defense over the next decade. Former Internal Market Commissioner Thierry Breton has advocated for a €100 billion fund to accelerate production and collaboration within the EU defense industry. Public calls to action, including the 2024 Draghi report on European competitiveness, highlight both the magnitude of this challenge and the strategic opportunity it presents.

Insufficient Resources and Challenges for Private Investment

While various financial programs have been announced by governments across Europe to strengthen resilience in the defense sector and support SMEs, public resources alone are insufficient. Private investment in this sector has been moderate due to the challenges associated with divesting these strategic and highly regulated entities. Additionally, mid-cap defense companies had struggled to obtain traditional bank financing because of their complex financial needs and negative sustainability image. These difficulties have created a significant lending gap.

Fragmentation of the European Defense Ecosystem

The European SME ecosystem in the defense sector is highly fragmented and generally structured along national borders. A 2022 survey conducted by the Coordinated Annual Review on Defense (CARD) found that only 18% of investments in defense programs were collaborative, indicating that cooperation remains the exception rather than the norm. To address this lack of cohesion and strengthen the effectiveness and resilience of the European defense industry, cross-border initiatives have emerged.

Collaborative Efforts: The European Defense Fund and OCCAR

The European Defense Fund (EDF) functions as the Commission’s mechanism to promote research and development activities in the field of defense, with €2.7 billion for collaborative defense research and €5.3 billion for collaborative capability development projects that complement national contributions. Financial support is primarily offered through grants, which can cover up to 100% of eligible costs, depending on the activities concerned, with a bonus system that considers SMEs, mid-caps, and connections to Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO) projects.

PESCO Projects: Enhancing Cooperation Among Member States

Currently, 68 projects are being developed under PESCO, each led by various participating Member States. These projects cover a wide range of areas, including training, land, maritime, air, cyber, and joint enablers, and aim to enhance cooperation and capabilities among EU Member States.

OCCAR, the Organization for Joint Armament Cooperation, is another initiative aimed at strengthening European collaboration on defense equipment. Established in 1996 by Germany, France, Italy, and the United Kingdom, OCCAR facilitates and manages collaborative defense equipment programs among European countries by pooling their resources, expertise, and technology. Its Supervisory Board includes the defense ministers of six member states, with Spain and Belgium in addition to the founding members, as well as non-member participating states and observer countries.

Rethinking Supply Chain Strategies: From JIT to JIC

The shift towards high-intensity conflict has exposed the shortcomings of the European Just-in-Time (JIT) model in meeting modern operational and supply chain demands. The JIT model, which attempts to reduce inventory costs by producing and receiving defense goods only as needed, is no longer sufficient in a high-intensity warfare environment. Rapid response and flexibility are crucial, yet the JIT model’s focus on minimal stock levels can lead to insufficient reserves and slower response times during emergencies.

Before the resurgence of conflict in 2022, the European defense system was optimized for peacetime production, maintaining low inventory levels and producing goods only as necessary. This approach was suitable for a relatively benign geopolitical environment and allowed for the reallocation of defense spending towards welfare and education, known as the peace dividend. However, the current geopolitical landscape requires a shift away from the JIT model to a Just-in-Case (JIC) model that prioritizes maintaining substantial stock reserves to be ready to respond to potential threats.

Conclusion: A Comprehensive Approach for a Resilient Defense Industry

In conclusion, addressing the challenges facing the European defense sector requires a comprehensive approach that includes increased investment, enhanced collaboration, and a fundamental shift in supply chain strategies. The path to a more resilient and effective European defense industry is steep, but necessary to meet the demands of an evolving security environment.